Greater Vancouver Real Estate Market: March 2013
The big lesson this month is that you can have a balanced
market, but that doesn’t mean it’s typical. “Balanced” simply indicates
the sales-to-active-listings ratio, which rose to 15.2 percent in March,
according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
The REBGV defines a balanced market as anywhere from 12 to 19 per
cent. The Greater Vancouver MLS® market was stuck below 12 per cent
since July 2012 until it squeaked to 12.2 per cent in February. The
REBGV calls anything under 12 per cent a buyer’s market, but, again, the
name doesn’t really tell the story. Buyers weren’t buying at typical
rates.
So even though the sales-to-active-listings
ratio tells us the market is now balanced, the sales and listings
numbers say it’s kinda wonky.
Sales and Listings
The
2,347 sales recorded around Greater Vancouver in
March were 30.6 per cent above February’s sales, and that’s as it
should be as the market hits its spring stride.
However, compared to other Marches, 2,347 sales is slow: 18.3 per
cent below March 2012, and 42.5 per cent below March 2011 (an unusually
busy year). It’s the second-lowest since 2001, in fact, and 30.2 per
cent below the 10-year average for March.
To put it graphically…
REW.ca based on REBGV data
New listings also lagged. They were up only 0.1 per
cent over February, and 17.2 per cent lower than March 2012. That puts
them at 14.4 per cent below the 10-year March average.
March saw 15,460 Greater Vancouver homes for sale on the MLS, which
is up only 4.5 per cent over February. Slow sales must account for the
increase in
active listings, because there weren’t enough new listings to make up the difference.
What’s Up, What’s Down – At a Glance
|
Mar 2013/Feb 2013 |
Mar 2013/Mar 2012 |
| Overall Sales |
+30.6% |
-18.3% |
| - Detached |
+32.1% |
-21.1% |
| - Townhome |
+29.2% |
-13.6% |
| - Apartment |
+29.2% |
-17.5% |
| New Listings |
+0.1 |
-17.2% |
| Current Listings |
+4.5 |
+1.5% |
Neither sellers nor buyers are rushing in to end the standoff we’ve
been witnessing since last summer. And that means that prices aren’t
moving much either.
Benchmark Price (MLS® Home Price Index)
As REBGV president Sandra Wyant puts it: “While home sales were below
what’s typical for March, we are seeing more balance between the number
of sales and listings on the market in the last two months, which is
having a stabilizing impact on home prices.”
Greater Vancouver MLS® Benchmark Prices % Change
|
Mar 2013 |
Feb 2013 |
Mar 2012 |
| Detached |
$906,900 |
+0.6% |
-5.0% |
| Townhome |
$454,300 |
-0.3% |
-2.5% |
| Apartment |
$362,100 |
+0.5% |
-3.3% |
In general, more expensive areas are seeing bigger drops in benchmark prices. The price of a typical detached house on the
West Side of Vancouver
dropped the hardest of the 20 communities surveyed by the REBGV; it
fell 9.1 per cent from a year earlier, compared to a region-wide decline
of 5 per cent. The West Side benchmark is currently $2.06 million,
still the highest in all of Canada.
Richmond has also seen a y/y dip of 8.4 per cent, and now sits at $938,100.
In
West Vancouver and
Burnaby South, the benchmark price of a detached house dropped 4.9 per cent to $2,026,400 and $923,900.
North Vancouver
is the only other municipality where the benchmark house price is over
$900,000. At $936,100, it has declined just 2.4 per cent from March
2012.
However all of the most expensive municipalities except for West
Vancouver saw small increases in detached house prices compared to
February.
Townhouse and condo prices have seen consistent y/y drops, but less
so than houses. And m/m changes have all been within a very small range.
See the
REBGV full stats package for details broken down by city and municipality.
We could experience a sluggish market all the way through 2014, says
TD Bank Senior Economist Sonya Gulati, who will be keynote speaker at
the upcoming
Vancouver Real Estate Forum.
She provided this table with TD Economics’ sales and prices forecast
for Greater Vancouver, based on numbers from the Canadian Real Estate
Association:
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